Author: thomasthethinkengine

Thomas the Think Engine is the blog of a trained economist. It comes to you from Melbourne Australia.

Large numbers, meta-cognition and predictable mistakes

People don’t think accurately about problems. We take shortcuts across the logical landscape. We use rules of thumb, culture, tradition and old wives tales. We guess and intuit and estimate.

Most of the time, these shortctus get us to where we’re going. Sometimes we miss a bit to the left, sometimes we miss a bit to the right. But it works out.

However, there are some patterns of thought that we keep getting wrong. Some logical shortcuts lead us off in the same wrong direction every time. Like a forward who always kicks the ball off to the left.

This is where meta-cognition comes in. It’s like a coach. It says, Buddy, you always miss to the left. Why not just aim a bit more right? Buddy starts aiming right, and he kicks a lot more goals.

Meta-cognition is thinking about thinking. It asks us to put the goggles on, and examine all the rules, biases and heuristics we use in decision-making. If we find our decision making failing in a random way, oh well. But if we find our decision-making failing in a systematic, predictable way, EUREKA! We have something we can do something about.

Continue reading Large numbers, meta-cognition and predictable mistakes

From the fat but indefatigable New York Times: Weight-loss.

They say you can’t be too rich, or too thin. (That’s why I started this blog.)

Research into exercise and weight loss intrigues me. I was happy today to find that the fat but indefatigable New York Times has a great summary of the most recent research, confirming what everyone already knows, which is that exercise makes you hungry!

We’ve written about this before: Exercise won’t make you any less fat. Continue reading From the fat but indefatigable New York Times: Weight-loss.

Traffic lights: Hate

At the intersection of ubiquity and stupidity, lies my nemesis.  The traffic light.

Let’s look at three traffic scenarios.

1.  Light traffic.

I am stuck at the traffic light for no discernible reason.  No cars are coming.   The red light has me pinned down like a gleeful high school bully.

2. Medium traffic.

Cars go in one direction for a minute.  Cars go in the other direction for a minute.  Sounds fair!  But because of the way traffic builds up gradually, and moves off only gradually, we get lines of stopped cars in both directions.

This is the traffic wave effect, expressed in beautiful, scientific detail here.

3. Heavy traffic.

People aren’t moving anyway.  The light cycle shuffles through irrelevant sequences like a failing comedian.   Noone’s laughing. Continue reading Traffic lights: Hate

Population policy

I’ve been haunting the forums and threads on transit and urban policy for some time now. And I’ve noticed a change. Back in the day, the response to any proposal for more housing, or train lines, or new suburbs was:

Let’s not build it, who wants another million people?!?

It’s a classic case of mistaken identity between our old friends, that nebulous duo, cause and effect. In fact, the need to support another million people is almost a fait accompli.

But the naysayers are getting smarter and have reinvigorated their attack. Today, in response to proposals for more roads, more trains, more urban density and more tax, the naysayers exclaim “we must establish a population policy!”.

Obviously, they don’t specify a level of government that should do this, nor a target level, nor a means. But this is progress nonetheless.

And our illustrious, lustrous egg-head of a Prime Minister must have been haunting those forums too, because suddenly the Australian Government has a Minister for Population, Tony Burke. In addition to keeping an eye on Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture, he now has to manage into existence a population policy, with a reporting deadline in 12 months time.

This is a good thing. IN THEORY. In reality, actually doing something about population growth is extremely difficult and may not be worth the effort. Here’s a few reasons why:

Continue reading Population policy

On Formula 1: Profanity-laced Urbanity.

For a long time there was a group called Save Albert Park, arguing against the Melbourne Grand Prix. On the suburb’s street corners, bearded men (and women) sat on folding chairs distributing photocopied pamphlets and yellow ribbons.  But here’s the thing:  Albert Park is not all that.  It’s dreary and windswept.

The group could benefit from rebranding. One option I consider especially sonorous is: F1ck the Grand Prix.

Five reasons we should say ‘F1ck it’: Continue reading On Formula 1: Profanity-laced Urbanity.

The US census incensed us: I sense a lack of consensus

TTTE loves surveys. As a student of survey design, I saw the chance to participate in America’s decennial census as quite an honour! Well it turned put to be a dubious kind of a honour, tinged with confusion and dismay. I do not consider myself particularly precious, but I cannot abide these seemingly pedestrian errors: Continue reading The US census incensed us: I sense a lack of consensus

You are now boarding the Singapore Line. Mind the Gap.

The Chinese Government is full of money and strange plans.   The latest plan is a long long train line.  They’re reaching out all the way to London with a VFT.  That’s a Very Fast Train, like Japan’s Shinkansen or France’s TGV.

The thing will go at over 300 km/h (estimated speeds are 320-500 ks)  and soak up the 8000 km journey to London in a couple of days.

And that’s not all.  They’re extending the network out in the other direction too.  Vietnam, Malaysia, and on to Singapore. Continue reading You are now boarding the Singapore Line. Mind the Gap.

A deluge of density

I’ve written before about the Barcelona meets Bentleigh East plan.

Developed by Rob Adams, it maxes urban density without screwing up the city. Ninety-one percent of the city stays exactly the same, full of stand-alone suburban blocks. But the tram and bus lines are (mostly) free to be developed (heritage overlay areas would be protected).  The density is achieved without creating massive overshadowing towers and without wholesale sacrifice of the urban scape we know and (some of us) love.

However, now Rob’s plan is under attack by a couple of white-hot young philosophers whose radically incisive views the Fairfax press has seen fit to amplify… Continue reading A deluge of density

Blog-lite, holiday edition. A microbrew review

Captain Frugal and his platoon of tightwads normally stick to supermarket cubes of generically brewed, watery beer. But when on holiday, and microbrews are around $6.99 a six-pack, penny-pinching gives way to experimentation and assessment. We sipped a selection of employee-owned, windmill-powered, carbon neutral beers, long on self-referential label spiels, and short on neon advertising.

But most beer reviews are too wanky. Here are real unprepared comments sought from people actually drinking the beers in question.

Continue reading Blog-lite, holiday edition. A microbrew review

The magic of Japan Rail

I was in Japan in February.  I caught the Shinkansen, various branch lines and a few subways.  It was so incredibly functional that I would have stopped and drooled all over the station floors, had there been time between our perfectly synchronised connections.

But I want to share one tiny anecdote that happened far from the centre of Tokyo, on a tiny little single -track branch line that gets as many as 8 services a day.

Continue reading The magic of Japan Rail

A better, faster coffee shop

I can imagine a coffee shop that works better. I want to cross a Ford factory with a sushi train and a horde of lemmings…

I buy a cup of coffee in two situations. One is where I am ‘having coffee’ and I want to linger.  In this case, the 3 dollars is a low low price to pay to rent a chair in a nice public space and shoot the breeze with somebody.

The other situation is take-away, when I’m on my way to work, or somewhere, and I need to wake up.

In the second case, the 3 dollars is an negligible cost for getting my day going.

BUT.

Continue reading A better, faster coffee shop

Charter Cities – An Idea

Paul Romer has an idea people are calling crazy.  He was a Stanford Economics Professor, but now he’s quit to pursue full time the idea of charter cities.  Eh?

Paul Romer

Charter cities are based on the idea of charter schools.  These are schools in America outside the education system.  They are generally in poor black areas and have a ‘charter’ – a set of radically different rules.  For example they might do ten hour school days, six day weeks, compulsory uniforms.  They are like free private schools, and they have been extremely popular (59 percent have waiting lists for entry) and often successful (one meta-analysis found most studies of charter schools showed improved student outcomes).

Continue reading Charter Cities – An Idea

What makes a good hostel?

Youth hostels are like little cities.  You have private space and public space.  There’s common infrastructure like kitchens and bathrooms.

If you don’t look after the common infrastructure, you get a hostel that’s like Calcutta.  And if you design the public spaces wrong, you end up with a hostel that’s a bit like Canberra.

The reason to stay in a hostel (other than saving a few bucks) is that it creates a place where you can meet some people.  The great thing about a shared room is that it forces interaction.  Then, when you move to the common area,  you can meet people from other rooms too.

But how to meet other people? It depends on ambience.

In Japan we stayed in one hostel that had a great public space with a few couches, an open fire and a beer vending machine. But the people who sat there barely spoke. The reason? A huge flat screen TV with hundreds of channels. Sitting there, you felt like you might be interrupting if you started talking.

Continue reading What makes a good hostel?

Let me tell you / how it will be / There’s one for you / nineteen for me …

Ooh-ooh I’m the taxman.

Ken Henry is a dude from Taree.  He likes wombats.  He is also the head of the Treasury.  The Treasurer asked him to do a big old review into what’s what in the tax system, and what we should do next.

Continue reading Let me tell you / how it will be / There’s one for you / nineteen for me …

What to do with a Southern Cross tattoo?

There’s a handful of stars that are very very far from each other, but when you look from a certain place we call earth, they make the shape of a cross.

Continue reading What to do with a Southern Cross tattoo?