The industry that’ll save Australia doesn’t require coding

There’s an industry on the brink of a break-out, and it doesn’t require us to learn C++. It would rather we learned to smile widely.

G'day Quokka!
G’day Quokka!

That industry is tourism.

Tourist arrival numbers hit records in November, December, February and March. Glancing at this graph of the last 15 years tells us we’re onto a winner. Look at that uptick since 2012!

Screen Shot 2015-06-25 at 11.06.14 amArrivals in March 2015 were 13 percent higher than a year ago. Arrivals in February were 14 per cent higher.

It’s time to turn your place into an AirBnB, people. There are already dozens of listings within walking distance of my house.

Screen Shot 2015-06-25 at 11.09.48 amAnd it is more than just a cottage industry. There are thousands of real jobs available in the sector too.

Screen Shot 2015-06-25 at 11.15.44 amThat’s five times the number of jobs I could see in mining.

Screen Shot 2015-06-25 at 11.16.12 amThe tourism sector has been in growth mode for a long while, although we don’t celebrate it much.

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Politicians are more likely to say they want to live in a country that makes things.

Are we somehow ashamed of tourism? Do we feel it debases us to offer hospitality to visitors? While it’s somehow strong and tough to make things and send them to those same people?

Bangladesh makes a lot of things. I’d rather live in a place people want to visit.

We can make Australia better for tourists by improving transport in our cities and nation-wide, by teaching languages, and by preserving our natural environment.

A politician that made tourism the centre-piece of their economic recovery plan would get my vote.

How do you get a country excited about tourism?

1. Tourism is super important, accounting for 10 per cent of Australia’s export earnings.

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Services are our second biggest export sector and tourism is Australia’s largest services export.

2. Tourism’s moment has come.

Source: Yahoo Finance
Australia: on special. Source: Yahoo Finance

3. International tourism is understood to have public good aspects (e.g. brand Australia) that warrant some public spending on attracting visitors. Tourism is also a public policy issue because regulations around immigration and customs, aviation and airports can determine the cost effectiveness of a trip to Australia.

But at this crucial moment for the industry, government funding for Tourism Australia has gone from $132 million in 2012 to $129 million in 2014.  That’s a fall from $21.29 per visitor to $19.64.

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4. The Government does not have a minister holding the title of Minister for Tourism (they do have a Minister for Sport). The Trade minister has tourism in his portfolio. But he has been accused of “neglect” for the sector.

5. There have been no data released on overseas arrivals since September 2014. The Department of Border Protection changed the arrival cards and completely screwed up the system that had delivered excellent monthly data for the previous 14 years. The timing of this mistake, at a likely inflection point in inbound tourism, is truly remarkable.

6. To make matters worse, right now the Productivity Commission is trying to put together a major report on tourism, in the absence of that data.

I have written before about the best way to invest to take advantage of the coming tourism boom, with AirBnB seeming like the safest bet. But as well as dispersed individual actions, we need a big coordinated push, and that doesn’t look like happening yet. Services industries remain a side-show to the “real” economy of tangible things in too many people’s minds.

Can the PC report shock the government into doing more? Or will the government remain focused on issues like foreign purchase of agricultural land?

Australia and China: an unbalanced relationship.

I think this must be the most-seen three-word phrase in the history of humanity:

Made in China

Unlike liberte, egalite fraternite, or love thy neighbour, Made in China crosses national boundaries with ease, creating only a minimum of tension.

Australia, however, is in the unusual position of running a merchandise trade surplus with China.

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This graph shows merchandise imports and exports from Australia’s perspective. Somewhere around 2009, our exports to China started growing much much faster than our imports from China.

So far, so nice. But the imbalance in our relationship has another aspect.

Far more Chinese visit Australia than Australians visit China. This is intriguing.

Should we be worried about this? What does it imply about our level of interest in our #1 customer?

Do Australians not even care about the culture and the people of China?

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Or is this just the result of there being 60 times more Chinese people than Australian people in the world? Certainly it is the case that the 23 million richest Chinese are richer on average than the 23 million richest Australians. (That’s all of us).

What will be interesting to see is if there is any correlation between the exports of merchandise and the exports of tourism services. When the taste for our iron ore drops off, will our hotels suddenly lie empty?

IN the meantime, I strongly recommend Beijing, especially if you can get there on a day when it’s not too smoggy.DSC00552 DSC00631 DSC00707 DSC00834


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Why won’t Americans suck it up and fly to Australia?

Americans, the hypocrites, will not stop complaining about the flight to Australia.

“I want to go to Australia, but I can’t stomach the thought of the year long flight….ugggh.” (source)

 

“I really want to go to australia but at the same time the flight is just soooo long, and everything there is poisonous” (source)

 

“Flying to Australia is a long arduous experience” (source)

And yet they consider driving across their vast, lumpy and obese country a simple jaunt! A petit amusement! A mere caper!

This graph shows that lots of people who can easily afford to fly will still happily ride the Interstate for hour after arduous hour. Among people earning over 100 grand, twenty per cent of trips of 2000 miles are done by car! 20 per cent!!

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Just for reference for our Australian readers, an example of a round trip of 2000 miles would be from Melbourne to Byron Bay, AND BACK.

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There should be millions of Americans trampling all over our fine brown land all the time.

The proportion of Americans with passports has risen from 3 per cent in 1989 to over 33 per cent now.

And yet growth in American tourism to Australia has been stunted, showing no growth at all in a decade, until a welcome recent blip. The cheap airfares that have had Aussies hitting up the States in record numbers apparently leave our American confreres ice cold.

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What Is Happening, America? Why You No Come Here?

Are they wholly xenophobic? Can we blame Lara “where the bloody hell are you” Bingle? Or is it our famous racism? Or are they more concerned about our drop bears, redbacks and large, fast-moving and highly venomous snakes?

Perceptions of safety can scarcely be the issue. It turns out the favourite destination of Americans in selecting their overseas travel is Mexico, with a 33 per cent share.

Oceania (presumably including those hobbit-botherers across the ditch, plus Tahiti, Fiji, etc) gets just 0.9 per cent. [source]

Canada gets 20 per cent and Europe is next with 19 per cent. Europe! What have they got that we don’t? Europe is at least 7 hours flight, NY-London, and as much as 14 hours if you try to go from LA to Helsinki.

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The American excuse that it is *just too far* is clearly made up. Which leaves us in an unhappy place. A place where we need to face a discomforting possibility.

Perhaps they just don’t like us.

Can we handle the rejection?

How to turn holidays into cash

If I was going to make an investment or start a business in this economy, there’s only one industry I’d be looking at. Continue reading How to turn holidays into cash