I can predict the future, with the following caveat:
Not all the time.
I’m rather chuffed by a couple of predictions I’ve made recently, and after I tell you about them I’m going to describe the surprising results of some recent research that has me abuzz.
The first thing I predicted was the fall in Apple’s share price when it was heading to around $700 and people were excitedly predicting a price of $1000. No, I did not put my money where my mouth was.
The second thing I successfully predicted was the beginning of the end of US monetary easing, in December. No, I did not put my money where my mouth was.
So, is it possible to predict the future better than randomly?
Research suggests the answer is yes. A Research project sponsored by IARPA (the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) over the last four years has assembled huge panels of forecasters. It is called the Good Judgment Project. They get asked hundreds of questions on world events, such as what might happen in Syria, will a certain country exit the euro, etc.
“The big surprise has been the support for the unabashedly elitist “super-forecaster” hypothesis. The top 2% of forecasters in Year 1 showed that there is more than luck at play. If it were just luck, the “supers” would regress to the mean: yesterday’s champs would be today’s chumps. But they actually got better. When we randomly assigned “supers” into elite teams, they blew the lid off IARPA’s performance goals. They beat the unweighted average (wisdom-of-overall-crowd) by 65%; beat the best algorithms of four competitor institutions by 35-60%; and beat two prediction markets by 20-35%.”
Aggregated forecasts of the Good Judgment Project are submitted to the IARPA forecasting tournament, which they won last year.
I have applied to join the panel of forecasters in 2014, and have sat a battery of online tests, including some very difficult questions! Such as:
True or False, Cuba helped to organize negotiations between the government of Colombia and FARC (Spanish acronym), the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
the meaning of DESUETUDE
and complete the pattern games:
trauma tuna flight fit wife __ a __ __ glossy gravity
They did political spectrum testing, put me through an ultimatum game, did lots of spatial, mathematical and verbal IQ stuff, and checked basic general knowledge.
I’m excited to get started. The project provides feedback directly to participants on their forecasting prowess as events transpire or fail to transpire. It should serve as a check on overconfidence.
In the meantime, I have one last forecast that I have publicly made. I went to the website of a certain sportsbetting company and put $100 on Daft Punk to win this year’s Hottest 100 with the song Get Lucky.
I mention this here only in the interests of extreme transparency. While to me it is obvious the song is the best of last year, there may be a certain youth and antipodean bias at triple J. Promotion for the Hottest 100 features the teenage Kiwi heavily:
Will that bias the vote? Will I lose my $100? Will that instil new levels of humility in me? That I can’t predict.