You remember Independence Day? A crappy movie that is much referenced but rarely watched, which stars Will Smith and alien spaceships.
It has a sequel. Independence day II. Coming out in 2013.
Similarly, our little play within a play, starring our loveable friends, the independents, will have a nasty follow up. Independents’ day II – the infighting.
Why would the independents stop feeling so in love?
These are men who make up their own minds. Three have proven capacity to fall out with the Nationals. One has fallen out with both the Liberals and the Greens.
Bundled together, the independents agreed on process, but they’ve got their way on that. Soon issues will come to the fore. Wilkie has brought his pokies issue to the fore and seemingly got his way. Might not the others be tempted?
As negotiations tighten, they might find they disagree. They’ll get tired of each others’ company, fed up with the media scrutiny or jealous of Katter’s headwear. There might be perceived or real breaches of the hastily developed agreements that bind them.
Oakeshott seems especially likely to approach the press on perceived slights….
I find it hard to believe that the process they agreed on will lead them all to a conclusion they agree on. As The Age predicts, they could split 75 all…
So the question becomes, which of these two does the best action-hero-style, last-minute save-the-day?
I like to make my predictions in public. It keeps me honest about how useful my mental models of reality are.
In this case, the prediction failed to come true. No fighting between the independents. Mental model sent back to workshop for repairs.
Stay tuned for further unabashed prognostication.
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