Unemployment numbers came out today and they’re bad. Unemployment is up. Again.
I was fossicking round in the data when I realised something important. There’s been a massive change. We are experiencing something unprecedented.
In the past, unemployment has surged up fast and fallen back down slowly. That’s the pattern. You’d get rising unemployment only in bad economic shocks. Now we’re getting slowly rising unemployment.
Something has changed in the belly of the beast.
And the effect you see above is not just an artefact of a higher population making the slope up look bigger on the graph. Here’s the unemployment rate graph for comparison.